bird data > probability plots
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There are four types of "probability" plots. The first type is not probability at all but rather shows the number of times a particular species was observed by week number from 1986 through 2009. There are 5 such plots covering all 135 species seen to date. Note that some of these are not really identified birds but are identifed types of birds. At the top of each of these 5 plots I list the birds that are plotted. That will to help you find a particular bird (using Find in Page) as the order of birds plotted is somewhat random. The remaining 3 types of plots are similarly presented. They are probability of observing a species of bird by week number from 1986 through 2009, probability of observing a species by year, and an estimated probability of observing a species by week number for 2009.

Number of times observed 1986-2009; Birds 1-30:

Rock Pigeon Scrub Jay Northern Mockingbird
House Sparrow Mourning Dove House Finch
Anna's Hummingbird Spotted Dove Acorn Woodpecker
American Crow Brewer's Blackbird Bushtit
Starling Yellow-rumped Warbler White-crowned Sparrow
Band-tailed Pigeon American Goldfinch Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Cedar Waxwing Killdeer American Robin
Brownheaded Cowbird Red-shouldered Hawk Dark-eyed Junco
Pine Siskin Downy Woopecker Ash-throated Flycatcher
Yellow-chevroned Parakeet California Towhee Orange-crowned Warbler


Number of times observed 1986-2009; Birds 31-60:

Red-tailed Hawk White-throated Swift Townsend's Warbler
Snowy Egret Northern Flicker Lesser Goldfinch
Black-chinned Hummingbird Kestrel Western Tanager
Spotted Towhee Red-winged Blackbird Budgerigar
Mountain Chickadee Black-headed Grosbeak Gull, sp.
Cooper's Hawk Sharp-shinned Hawk Hummingbird (Selasphorus)
Western Meadowlark Yellow-headed Parrot White Pelican
Black Phoebe Water Pipit Common Raven
Hermit Thrush Warbling Vireo Turkey Vulture
Wilson's Warbler Yellow Warbler Western Wood-pewee


Number of times observed 1986-2009; Birds 61-90:

Red-whiskered Bulbul Gray Flycatcher Mallard
Nashville Warbler Ring-billed Gull Flycatcher, sp.
White-breasted Nuthatch House Wren Black-throated Gray Warbler
McGillivray's Warbler Allen's Hummingbird Solitary Vireo
Purple Finch Double-creasted Cormorant Hawk, sp.
Great Blue Heron Vaux Swift Savannah Sparrow
Pacific-slope Flycatcher Phainopepla Common Snipe
Red-breasted Sapsucker Rufous Hummingbird Hooded Oriole
Hummingbird, sp. White-throated Sparrow Song Sparrow
Cattle Egret Violet-green Swallow Red-naped Sapsucker


Number of times observed 1986-2009; Birds 91-120:

Western Kingbird Hutton's Vireo Western Bluebird
Swallow, sp. Wrentit Red-crowned Parrot
Tree Swallow Warbler, sp. Horned Lark
Lincoln's Sparrow Hammond's Flycatcher Swainson's Thrush
Great Egret Bullock's Oriole Red-masked Parakeet
Say's Phoebe Nuttall's Woodpecker Hermit Warbler
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Canada Goose Green Heron
Shorewater bird, sp. Olive-sided Flycatcher Bewick's Wren
Common Yellowthroat Sapsucker, hybrid California Quail
Merlin Owl, sp. Cassin's Kingbird


Number of times observed 1986-2009; Birds 121-135:

Willow Flycatcher Woodpecker, sp. Wren, sp.
Sparrow, sp. White-tailed Kite Golden-crowned Sparrow
Falcon, sp. Swainson's Hawk Barn Swallow
Swift, sp. Common Peafowl Parakeet, sp.
Plumbeous Vireo


Probability observed by week number 1986-2009; Birds 1-30:

Rock Pigeon Scrub Jay Northern Mockingbird
House Sparrow Mourning Dove House Finch
Anna's Hummingbird Spotted Dove Acorn Woodpecker
American Crow Brewer's Blackbird Bushtit
Starling Yellow-rumped Warbler White-crowned Sparrow
Band-tailed Pigeon American Goldfinch Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Cedar Waxwing Killdeer American Robin
Brownheaded Cowbird Red-shouldered Hawk Dark-eyed Junco
Pine Siskin Downy Woopecker Ash-throated Flycatcher
Yellow-chevroned Parakeet California Towhee Orange-crowned Warbler


Probability observed by week number 1986-2009; Birds 31-60:

Red-tailed Hawk White-throated Swift Townsend's Warbler
Snowy Egret Northern Flicker Lesser Goldfinch
Black-chinned Hummingbird Kestrel Western Tanager
Spotted Towhee Red-winged Blackbird Budgerigar
Mountain Chickadee Black-headed Grosbeak Gull, sp.
Cooper's Hawk Sharp-shinned Hawk Hummingbird (Selasphorus)
Western Meadowlark Yellow-headed Parrot White Pelican
Black Phoebe Water Pipit Common Raven
Hermit Thrush Warbling Vireo Turkey Vulture
Wilson's Warbler Yellow Warbler Western Wood-pewee


Probability observed by week number 1986-2009; Birds 61-90:

Red-whiskered Bulbul Gray Flycatcher Mallard
Nashville Warbler Ring-billed Gull Flycatcher, sp.
White-breasted Nuthatch House Wren Black-throated Gray Warbler
McGillivray's Warbler Allen's Hummingbird Solitary Vireo
Purple Finch Double-creasted Cormorant Hawk, sp.
Great Blue Heron Vaux Swift Savannah Sparrow
Pacific-slope Flycatcher Phainopepla Common Snipe
Red-breasted Sapsucker Rufous Hummingbird Hooded Oriole
Hummingbird, sp. White-throated Sparrow Song Sparrow
Cattle Egret Violet-green Swallow Red-naped Sapsucker


Probability observed by week number 1986-2009; Birds 91-120:

Western Kingbird Hutton's Vireo Western Bluebird
Swallow, sp. Wrentit Red-crowned Parrot
Tree Swallow Warbler, sp. Horned Lark
Lincoln's Sparrow Hammond's Flycatcher Swainson's Thrush
Great Egret Bullock's Oriole Red-masked Parakeet
Say's Phoebe Nuttall's Woodpecker Hermit Warbler
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Canada Goose Green Heron
Shorewater bird, sp. Olive-sided Flycatcher Bewick's Wren
Common Yellowthroat Sapsucker, hybrid California Quail
Merlin Owl, sp. Cassin's Kingbird


Probability observed by week number 1986-2009; Birds 121-135:

Willow Flycatcher Woodpecker, sp. Wren, sp.
Sparrow, sp. White-tailed Kite Golden-crowned Sparrow
Falcon, sp. Swainson's Hawk Barn Swallow
Swift, sp. Common Peafowl Parakeet, sp.
Plumbeous Vireo


Probability observed by year; Birds 1-30:

Rock Pigeon Scrub Jay Northern Mockingbird
House Sparrow Mourning Dove House Finch
Anna's Hummingbird Spotted Dove Acorn Woodpecker
American Crow Brewer's Blackbird Bushtit
Starling Yellow-rumped Warbler White-crowned Sparrow
Band-tailed Pigeon American Goldfinch Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Cedar Waxwing Killdeer American Robin
Brownheaded Cowbird Red-shouldered Hawk Dark-eyed Junco
Pine Siskin Downy Woopecker Ash-throated Flycatcher
Yellow-chevroned Parakeet California Towhee Orange-crowned Warbler


Probability observed by year; Birds 31-60:

Red-tailed Hawk White-throated Swift Townsend's Warbler
Snowy Egret Northern Flicker Lesser Goldfinch
Black-chinned Hummingbird Kestrel Western Tanager
Spotted Towhee Red-winged Blackbird Budgerigar
Mountain Chickadee Black-headed Grosbeak Gull, sp.
Cooper's Hawk Sharp-shinned Hawk Hummingbird (Selasphorus)
Western Meadowlark Yellow-headed Parrot White Pelican
Black Phoebe Water Pipit Common Raven
Hermit Thrush Warbling Vireo Turkey Vulture
Wilson's Warbler Yellow Warbler Western Wood-pewee


Probability observed by year; Birds 61-90:

Red-whiskered Bulbul Gray Flycatcher Mallard
Nashville Warbler Ring-billed Gull Flycatcher, sp.
White-breasted Nuthatch House Wren Black-throated Gray Warbler
McGillivray's Warbler Allen's Hummingbird Solitary Vireo
Purple Finch Double-creasted Cormorant Hawk, sp.
Great Blue Heron Vaux Swift Savannah Sparrow
Pacific-slope Flycatcher Phainopepla Common Snipe
Red-breasted Sapsucker Rufous Hummingbird Hooded Oriole
Hummingbird, sp. White-throated Sparrow Song Sparrow
Cattle Egret Violet-green Swallow Red-naped Sapsucker


Probability observed by year; Birds 91-120:

Western Kingbird Hutton's Vireo Western Bluebird
Swallow, sp. Wrentit Red-crowned Parrot
Tree Swallow Warbler, sp. Horned Lark
Lincoln's Sparrow Hammond's Flycatcher Swainson's Thrush
Great Egret Bullock's Oriole Red-masked Parakeet
Say's Phoebe Nuttall's Woodpecker Hermit Warbler
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Canada Goose Green Heron
Shorewater bird, sp. Olive-sided Flycatcher Bewick's Wren
Common Yellowthroat Sapsucker, hybrid California Quail
Merlin Owl, sp. Cassin's Kingbird


Probability observed by year; Birds 121-150:

Willow Flycatcher Woodpecker, sp. Wren, sp.
Sparrow, sp. White-tailed Kite Golden-crowned Sparrow
Falcon, sp. Swainson's Hawk Barn Swallow
Swift, sp. Common Peafowl Parakeet, sp.
Plumbeous Vireo Lark Sparrow Rock Wren
Kingbird, sp. Parrot, sp. Pigeon, sp.
Vireo, sp. Chipping Sparrow Red-lored Parrot
Corvid, sp. Oak Titmouse Thrush, sp.
Belted Kingfisher Cormorant, sp. Duck, sp.
Sapsucker, sp. Black-and-white Warbler Costa's Hummingbird


Probability observed by year; Birds 151-152:

European Goldfinch Peregrine Falcon


Estimated probability by week number for 2009; Birds 1-30:

Rock Pigeon Scrub Jay Northern Mockingbird
House Sparrow Mourning Dove House Finch
Anna's Hummingbird Spotted Dove Acorn Woodpecker
American Crow Brewer's Blackbird Bushtit
Starling Yellow-rumped Warbler White-crowned Sparrow
Band-tailed Pigeon American Goldfinch Ruby-crowned Kinglet
Cedar Waxwing Killdeer American Robin
Brownheaded Cowbird Red-shouldered Hawk Dark-eyed Junco
Pine Siskin Downy Woopecker Ash-throated Flycatcher
Yellow-chevroned Parakeet California Towhee Orange-crowned Warbler


Estimated probability by week number for 2009; Birds 31-60:

Red-tailed Hawk White-throated Swift Townsend's Warbler
Snowy Egret Northern Flicker Lesser Goldfinch
Black-chinned Hummingbird Kestrel Western Tanager
Spotted Towhee Red-winged Blackbird Budgerigar
Mountain Chickadee Black-headed Grosbeak Gull, sp.
Cooper's Hawk Sharp-shinned Hawk Hummingbird (Selasphorus)
Western Meadowlark Yellow-headed Parrot White Pelican
Black Phoebe Water Pipit Common Raven
Hermit Thrush Warbling Vireo Turkey Vulture
Wilson's Warbler Yellow Warbler Western Wood-pewee


Estimated probability by week number for 2009; Birds 61-90:

Red-whiskered Bulbul Gray Flycatcher Mallard
Nashville Warbler Ring-billed Gull Flycatcher, sp.
White-breasted Nuthatch House Wren Black-throated Gray Warbler
McGillivray's Warbler Allen's Hummingbird Solitary Vireo
Purple Finch Double-creasted Cormorant Hawk, sp.
Great Blue Heron Vaux Swift Savannah Sparrow
Pacific-slope Flycatcher Phainopepla Common Snipe
Red-breasted Sapsucker Rufous Hummingbird Hooded Oriole
Hummingbird, sp. White-throated Sparrow Song Sparrow
Cattle Egret Violet-green Swallow Red-naped Sapsucker


Estimated probability by week number for 2009; Birds 91-120:

Western Kingbird Hutton's Vireo Western Bluebird
Swallow, sp. Wrentit Red-crowned Parrot
Tree Swallow Warbler, sp. Horned Lark
Lincoln's Sparrow Hammond's Flycatcher Swainson's Thrush
Great Egret Bullock's Oriole Red-masked Parakeet
Say's Phoebe Nuttall's Woodpecker Hermit Warbler
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Canada Goose Green Heron
Shorewater bird, sp. Olive-sided Flycatcher Bewick's Wren
Common Yellowthroat Sapsucker, hybrid California Quail
Merlin Owl, sp. Cassin's Kingbird


Estimated probability by week number for 2009; Birds 121-135:

Willow Flycatcher Woodpecker, sp. Wren, sp.
Sparrow, sp. White-tailed Kite Golden-crowned Sparrow
Falcon, sp. Swainson's Hawk Barn Swallow
Swift, sp. Common Peafowl Parakeet, sp.
Plumbeous Vireo